Red Ken’s congestion charge for central London takes effect next Monday which, if it has any impact at all, could mean quieter streets for London’s bike commuters. It could also mean lots of previously lazy lubbers deciding that pedal power is the way forward, but will it happen overnight?

On the face of it cycling does seem an obvious option: Public transport isn’t temptingly cheap in relation to the £5 charge, plus there are uncertainties over its capacity to cope with extra demand. London bike shops are gearing up for increased sales and some, like Bigfoot Bikes are doing their best to encourage commuters to take to two wheels. Bigfoot, based in Bromley, Kent, are organising a commuter ride on the first day of the charge. Starting at 6am, they’ll be showing newbies a safe and quiet route into the city from Bromley and doubling participants’ saving with a £5 gift voucher for the shop.

But London isn’t exactly prepared for cycling commuters: how many offices do you know with showers and bike-locking facilities?
Existing commuters are used to dealing with the traffic, the sweat, the inconveniences that come along with the advantages, but your average capital motorist?

There are signs that planners are beginning to take cycling seriously as a commuting means, for example bikebiz reports that luxury property developers Berkeley Homes have added cycle storage racks and lockers to their list of ‘must have’ amenities at their new Chelsea Bridge Wharf complex. The South Bank development, which falls within the charging zone, will also have motorcycle and scooter bays and so less room for cars.

But for the time being, faced with a choice between paying a little bit more to keep their motor comforts, running the public transport gauntlet or saddling up and arriving in work sweaty and unkempt, there’ll probably be a whole load of people who stick to what they know.

Which doesn’t mean that we don’t support the scheme, but changing people’s habits is going to take longer than the time it takes to charge them for driving. We reckon that in the short-term at least, the most likely people to get on their bikes will be those who are already cyclists but not commuters, people who’ve got the kit already and know how to handle themselves on a bike.

Of course, come Monday morning, we could be proved completely wrong…